[Hplusroadmap] Fwd: [tt] Wesley J.Smith: My Predictions for 2008

[Bryan Bishop]

Maybe fetal embryo farming for organs is a niche to get into?

- Bryan

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Subject: [tt] Wesley J.Smith: My Predictions for 2008
Date: Friday 14 December 2007
From: Premise Checker <checker at panix.com>
To: paleopsych at paleopsych.org

Wesley J.Smith: My Predictions for 2008
A Newsletter of the Center for Bioethics and Culture Network
http://www.cbc-network.org/enewsletter/index_12_12_07.htm

When the CBC asked me to play Nostradamus and prognosticate on how
I see bioethical and biotechnological issues playing out next year,

I had a good idea about much of what I would say. And most of it
wasn't very encouraging.

But then something very big happened that made me glad I hadn't
written this article last month: Scientists in Japan and the United
States reprogrammed human skin cells back to a stem cell state. And
the world shifted.

Why are Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs), as they are called,
so important? For years, the scientists have told us that the gold
standard of stem cell research and regenerative medicine is the
ability to create patient-specific, tailor-made, pluripotent stem
cells (those which in theory can become any kind of tissue in the
body), that could be used in patients without tissue rejection.

Until recently, it was thought that such cells could only come from
human somatic cell nuclear transfer cloningwith all of its
attendant moral and ethical problems (exploiting women for eggs,
creating human life as an experiment, etc.). But now, scientists
appear to have circumvented the ethical issue. And, like I said,
the world shifted and took on a somewhat brighter hue.

With this in mind, here are my predictions for 2008:

   Research into human iPSCs will advance toward overcoming the need
to use viruses in the cell reprogramming : Creating the iPSCs is
accomplished by injecting genes into the cells. These genes
reprogram the cells back to a stem-cell state. Presently, injecting
the genes requires retroviruses as the delivery vehicles. With
iPSCs now offering so much hope, I believe that scientists will
energetically engage the problem and advance substantially in 2008
toward learning how to reprogram cells without using virusesa big
step toward being able to use them in human treatments.

   The first human cloned embryonic stem cell line will be created :
The great iPSC breakthrough has damaged societal support for human
cloning research. But some scientists are not amused, seeing human
cloning as extending well beyond embryonic stem cell research, for
example, in learning how to genetically engineer embryos or in
fetal farming for organs. Encouraged by recent successes in monkey
cloningand to regain political momentumexpect some scientists to
work zealously to demonstrate that human cloning can indeed be
accomplished. As a result, I predict world headlines when
scientists announce that they have derived the first cloned human
embryonic stem cell lines from cloned human embryos.

   Methods will be advanced toward obtaining human eggs without
requiring super-ovulation : One of the prime impediments to human
cloning is a lack of the tens of thousands of human eggs that may
be required to perfect the procedure. (One egg is needed for each
somatic cell nuclear transfer attempt.) Some scientists want to use
animal eggs to create human cybrid embryos. But the most likely way
around the resource problem is to find ways to obtain bounteous
supplies of human eggs without requiring women to go through the
onerous procedure known as super-ovulation. Toward this end,
experiments are already ongoing to mature eggs removed from the
ovaries of aborted late term female fetuses. Other sources of eggs
could be female cadavers or ovaries surgically removed from girls
or women of childbearing years. In 2008, scientists will advance
substantially toward maturing eggs taken from ovarian tissues in
animal and human experiments, leading to potentially overcoming the
egg issue.

   No laws will be passed to permit egg buying for biotechnological
research : Prior to the iPSC breakthrough, I would have predicted
that the scientists' demand for eggs to be used in cloning research
would result in some laws explicitly permitting scientists to
engage in human egg buying schemes.  Now, I think that will not
happen.  Indeed, it is possible that further inroads will be made
prohibiting such purchases in the coming year.

   The Bush ESCR funding restrictions will not be overturned: Last
year I predicted, erroneously, that the Bush embryonic stem cell
funding restrictions would fall. I was planning to make the same
prediction this yearuntil the great iPSC breakthrough took most of
the political air out of the issue. I now believe that the steam
has escaped from that issue and that the Bush policy will survive
to the end of his term.

   There will be no changes in the law about human cloning: Before
iPSCs made their debut, serious political efforts were underway,
such as in Michigan and Canada, to overturn existing total cloning
bans. In other jurisdictions, efforts were underway to outlaw
reproductive cloning, while explicitly permitting research cloning.
At least some of these efforts seemed likely to succeed in 2008.
But I now believe they will fail. At the same time, the political
atmosphere has not changed so radically that it will now support
new cloning bans. I thus predict that no states or countries will
legalize or outlaw human cloning in 2008.

   Washington State Will Reject Legalizing Assisted Suicide : It is
almost a sure thing that Washington Governor Booth Gardnera very
wealthy manwill finance an initiative in Washington-State to
legalize assisted suicide. The question is: Will it pass? My head
tells me that it will: The media is biased; Gardner has deep
pockets; and, as always, the polls look bad. But my heart tells me
that it will fail. The agenda is profoundly wrong. A powerful,
political strange-bedfellow coalition made up of liberal
secularistssuch as disability rights activists and conservative
religionists, such as pro lifershave kept assisted suicide at bay
since 1994, including defeating initiatives in Michigan (1998) and
Maine (2000) and will engage the Washington debate. Being a
congenital optimist, I am going with my heart: The initiative will
lose in a very close vote.

   No State Legislature will Pass Assisted Suicide Legislation :
Several states have seen legislative attempts in recent years to
legalize assisted suicide, including California (still pending),
Vermont, Arizona, and Hawaii. With 2008 being an election yearand
with legislators waiting to see what happens in Washingtonexpect no
states to legalize assisted suicide in 2008.

   Futile Care Theory Will Remain Stalled : Several states permit
hospital ethics committees to refuse wanted life-sustaining
treatment based on quality of life judgments. Known as Futile Care
Theory or medical futility, Texas law is the most explicit in this
regard, permitting treatment to be withdrawn 10 days after a
determination by a hospital committee that the treatment is
inappropriate. Attempts to impose medical futility in Texas
faltered in the face of negative publicity and litigation seeking
to find the law unconstitutional. Expect this standoff to continue
in 2008.

This much I can predict with confidence: Unexpected scientific
breakthroughs or public bioethical controversies will roil society
in 2008. Expect the CBC to be on top of these developments working
to educate the public and ensure that the values of what has been
called The Biotech Century remain committed to the sanctity and
equality of human life.

Happy New Year to one and all.

Wesley J. Smith is a special consultant to the CBC, Sr. Fellow with
the Discovery Institute and blogs daily at Secondhand Smoke.
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